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Jason Thomas: Tomac analysis

Expert insight.

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Eli Tomac is having a great season. There’s really no way to argue that. Still, he did just lose the points lead for the first time this season after a very uninspired ride at the Indianapolis round of Monster Energy Supercross. This strangely poor performance was not the first time we have seen it occur. Tampa, in early February, was a very surprising ride and at the time seemed very out of character. See, since the 2022 season began, Tomac has been fantastic. The switch to Monster/Yamaha/Star Racing seemed to do wonders for Tomac. Most considered him on the verge of retirement, not poised for the best year of his career! 2023 has been much of the same, again putting together the best first-half season of his career. Going into Indy, it was the most points he had ever garnered through 8 rounds. His worst finish of the season was a crash induced 6th at Anaheim 2, followed up by the aforementioned 5th in Tampa. He had been the picture of consistency, logging an average score of 2.38. That will win you a title almost every year (not 1996 or 2001, but most years). Simply put, he’s been incredible. So, that begs the question, what in the world went on last weekend?


Words: Jason Thomas | Lead Image: Star Racing


I believe it’s a by-product of a completely revamped Yamaha 450. Anytime a motorcycle’s geometry is radically changed, it’s characteristics change with it. For the 2023 Yamaha, they made a directed change to make the chassis smaller, lighter, and nimbler. The Yamaha has long been regarded as a larger, more stable steed. For a smaller stature rider like myself, it wasn’t ideal as I always felt like I had a more difficult time manipulating the Yamaha versus smaller-oriented rider triangles. It wasn’t a fundamental negative as the Yamaha felt incredibly stable. That’s typically the trade-off. The better cornering, more nimble feeling chassis usually offers less in the stability category. The worst offender of this in the history of motorcycles (in my humble opinion) was the 2009 Honda CRF450. Honda went all-in on cornering, putting pressure on the front end in lieu of a more balanced overall feel. In a word, it was a disaster. Yamaha is certainly nowhere near that level of change but I do believe they did lean more towards that direction. If they could gain in cornering radius and lighten the bike without a significant loss in stability confidence, that would be a big win for the model. Mostly, I think they accomplished that. Tomac’s results (and comments) seem to bear that out, anyway. The question remains, though, are there drawbacks to the big change? I think we are seeing them in certain conditions, yes. 

Look at Tampa and Indy overall. Tricky conditions, rutty jumps, and extra load placed on the chassis via deteriorating conditions. In years’ past, Tomac would excel in those conditions. He has decimated the field at races like Seattle where the track looks like a post-war metropolis. Now, it seems to be a liability versus a strength. The motorcycle seems to be better in many situations, a la the prototypical supercross track. When things go sideways, though, he seems to as well. He looked wildly uncomfortable last weekend. He wasn’t able to move forward, wasn’t able to be aggressive, and genuinely looked to be along for the ride. It was his worst result of the season and looked exactly as it was logged.

If my thesis is right, and the chassis change is effecting his results on these softer, rutty tracks, what does that mean for the rest of the season? Looking at the calendar, it could be a mixed bag. Tracks like Detroit, Seattle, Atlanta, and New Jersey could be soft and rutty. They are in weather-effected areas and some are open-air venues. On the other hand, races like Glendale, Denver, and Salt Lake City should be harder-packed tracks and suit his strengths. How do we square that? Who gets the edge in a mixed-bag scenario? 

The key will be in maximizing points when things are going your way and minimizing the damage when the struggle is real. That sounds easy but surely it’s not when watching Indy last weekend. To be sure, though, an 8th or two down the stretch will derail this championship. Whether it’s Webb or Sexton, they are going to be landing podiums more often than not. Giving up ten plus points on a given night will have dire consequences as the remaining races grow short and the margins grow tighter. Tomac will need to win when it’s in the cards and when things are at their worst, turn that 8th into a 3rd or close. That’s how the greats have always done it. It’s often said that championships are won on your bad nights. Nothing could be more true for Tomac this season. He already has five wins this season and will likely add to that tally. The bad nights, though, have been the difference. He won’t have the red plate this weekend for the first time in 2023. That should be a glaring alert that nights like Indy simply won’t do. Detroit could be a pivotal night as far as series sentiment goes. Tomac has done a great job of answering when questions have been posed. Can he do it again this Saturday?

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Stat Attack: Indianapolis Supercross Review

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With the tenth round of AMA Supercross in the books, statistics maestro Paul Pearcy has provided MX Vice with some brilliant numbers to tuck into from what was a great night of action. Enjoy

250 Class

Qualifying

  • Top 3
  1. Max Anstie: 49.492
  2. Tom Vialle: 49.492; (Max got top spot because his time came in the first session, while Tom’s time came in the second session)
  3. Pierce Brown: 49.719

LCQ

  • Top 3
  1. Jeremy Martin
  2. Ryder Floyd
  3. Hardy Munoz
  • Laps Led
  1. Jeremy Martin: 5
  2. Hardy Munoz: 2
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Jeremy Martin: 52.413
  2. Preston Boespflug: 53.150
  3. Gage Linville: 53.549
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Jeremy Martin: 53.655
  2. Preston Boespflug: 54.259
  3. Ryder Floyd: 54.373

Race 1

  • Top 3
  1. Cameron Mcadoo
  2. Haiden Deegan
  3. Seth Hammaker
  • Laps Led
  1. Cameron Mcadoo: 12
  2. Daxton Bennick: 1
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Haiden Deegan: 49.561
  2. Tom Vialle: 49.660
  3. Cameron Mcadoo: 49.854
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Cameron Mcadoo: 50.830
  2. Haiden Deegan: 51.086
  3. Seth Hammaker: 51.907
  • Most Consistent Lap Times (Least difference between fastest and slowest lap times)
  1. Preston Boespflug: 2.970
  2. Cameron Mcadoo: 3.184
  3. Jalek Swoll: 3.287

Race 2

  • Top 3
  1. Haiden Deegan
  2. Cameron Mcadoo
  3. Tom Vialle
  • Laps Led
  1. Haiden Deegan: 12
  2. Jalek Swoll: 1
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Haiden Deegan: 49.493
  2. Tom Vialle: 50.690
  3. Pierce Brown: 50.868
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Haiden Deegan: 51.522
  2. Cameron Mcadoo: 52.214
  3. Tom Vialle: 52.580
  • Most Consistent Lap Times (Least difference between fastest and slowest lap times)
  1. Jeremy Hand: 2.040
  2. Coty Schock: 2.315
  3. Max Anstie: 2.634

Race 3

  • Top 3
  1. Tom Vialle
  2. Pierce Brown
  3. Cameron Mcadoo
  • Laps Led
  1. Tom Vialle: 13
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Tom Vialle: 49.844
  2. Chance Hymas: 50.020
  3. Cameron Mcadoo: 50.175
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Tom Vialle: 51.493
  2. Pierce Brown: 51.563
  3. Haiden Deegan: 51.892
  • Most Consistent Lap Times (Least difference between fastest and slowest lap times)
  1. Marshal Weltin: 1.984
  2. Seth Hammaker: 1.997
  3. Nick Romano: 2.233

Overall

  • Top 3
  1. Cameron Mcadoo; (1st win of the season, 80% podium rate this year)
  2. Tom Vialle; (80% podium rate this year)
  3. Haiden Deegan; (40% podium rate this season)
  • Laps Led
  1. Tom Vialle: 13; (Tom is now tied with Austin Forkner for most laps led this season at 37.  34% of total laps raced)
  2. Cameron Mcadoo: 12
  3. Haiden Deegan: 12
  4. Jalek Swoll: 1
  5. Daxton Bennick: 1
  • Best First Lap Position Average
  1. Tom Vialle: 3rd 
  2. Cameron Mcadoo: 3.333
  3. Jalek Swoll: 4th 

Points

  • Top 10
  1. Cameron Mcadoo: 98
  2. Tom Vialle: 96
  3. Pierce Brown: 87
  4. Haiden Deegan: 82
  5. Coty Schock: 79
  6. Seth Hammaker: 72
  7. Daxton Bennick: 71
  8. Max Anstie: 62
  9. Chance Hymas: 60
  10. Jalek Swoll: 58

450 Class

Qualifying

  • Top 3
  1. Jett Lawrence: 48.523
  2. Eli Tomac: 48.554
  3. Cooper Webb: 48.568; (The difference between 1st and 3rd was .045 seconds.)

LCQ

  • Top 3
  1. Kyle Chisholm
  2. Justin Starling
  3. Devin Simonson
  • Laps Led
  1. Kyle Chisholm: 7
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Ty Masterpool: 52.415
  2. Kyle Chisholm: 52.810
  3. Freddie Noren: 53.248
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Kyle Chisholm: 54.223
  2. Ryan Breece: 54.271
  3. Freddie Noren: 54.390

Race 1

  • Top 3
  1. Jett Lawrence
  2. Ken Roczen
  3. Chase Sexton
  • Laps Led
  1. Jett Lawrence: 10
  2. Ken Roczen: 6
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Jett Lawrence: 48.639
  2. Ken Roczen: 49.225
  3. Cooper Webb: 49.581
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Jett Lawrence: 51.023
  2. Cooper Webb: 51.383
  3. Ken Roczen: 51.402
  • Most Consistent Lap Times (Least difference between fastest and slowest lap times)
  1. Aaron Plessinger: 2.774
  2. Eli Tomac: 3.095
  3. Chase Sexton: 3.785

Race 2

  • Top 3
  1. Jett Lawrence
  2. Ken Roczen
  3. Chase Sexton
  • Laps Led
  1. Jett Lawrence: 10
  2. Ken Roczen: 6
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Jett Lawrence: 49.499
  2. Ken Roczen: 49.713
  3. Chase Sexton: 49.849
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Jett Lawrence: 50.735
  2. Chase Sexton: 50.884
  3. Ken Roczen: 50.908 (That’s a difference of .173 in average lap times over 16 laps)
  • Most Consistent Lap Times (Least difference between fastest and slowest lap times)
  1. Ken Roczen: 2.537
  2. Malcolm Stewart: 2.641
  3. Chase Sexton: 2.676

Race 3

  • Top 3
  1. Jett Lawrence
  2. Chase Sexton 
  3. Ken Roczen
  • Laps Led
  1. Ken Roczen: 10
  2. Jett Lawrence: 6
  • Fastest Lap Times
  1. Ken Roczen: 49.131
  2. Chase Sexton: 49.284
  3. Jett Lawrence: 49.314
  • Best Average Lap Times
  1. Jett Lawrence: 50.477
  2. Chase Sexton: 50.483
  3. Cooper Webb: 50.594; (That’s a difference of .117 in average lap times over 16 laps)
  • Most Consistent Lap Times (Least difference between fastest and slowest lap times)
  1. Chase Sexton: 2.528
  2. Cooper Webb: 2.885
  3. Jason Anderson: 3.079

Overall

  • Top 3
  1. Jett Lawrence; (The only other person to have a perfect sweep at a triple crown was Ken Roczen in 2020 also on a Honda.  Jett has now won 50% of the races this season, with a 60% podium rate)
  2. Ken Roczen; (Ken has a 50% podium rate this year)
  3. Chase Sexton; (Chase has a 50% podium rate this year)
  • Laps Led
  1. Jett Lawrence: 26; (Jett now has 130 laps led, 50.7% of total laps)
  2. Ken Roczen: 22; (Ken has the second most laps led at 49, Just 19% of total laps)
  • Best First Lap Position Average
  1. Ken Roczen: 1st 
  2. Jett Lawrence: 2nd 
  3. Jason Anderson: 4th 

Points

  • Top 10
  1. Jett Lawrence: 210
  2. Cooper Webb: 189
  3. Chase Sexton: 185
  4. Ken Roczen: 175
  5. Eli Tomac: 174
  6. Jason Anderson: 165
  7. Aaron Plessinger: 162
  8. Justin Cooper: 120
  9. Justin Barcia: 109
  10. Dylan Ferrandis: 107

Lead Image: HRC

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British MX Nationals

Thank you. It’s been a hell of a ride.

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Since buying back MX Vice in November 2019, it has been challenging. One of those crystal balls would have been handy for navigating some problematic situations. Who would have thought COVID-19 would be a thing?

Those who follow MX Vice know we started from nothing but an idea. A fan who loved the sport created a Facebook page, website, and social media presence that would become disruptive. It has made numerous talented media people who were allowed to run with it for over thirteen years. Being in the UK/Europe has always been difficult; I’ve always believed that if we were a US media company, we would have been embraced and appreciated for our work ethic and the content we produce. We always cast one eye over the US in Europe, and you can’t blame the top European riders for doing the same.

MX Vice has always tried to give people a voice, especially the riders who are not in the limelight and the teams that put so much into the sport. We love people’s passion and sacrifice to improve and challenge themselves. That, for me, was the natural pull, not the money but the passion and sacrifice. We all know we would not be in motocross if it were about the money. I always considered MX Vice the media version of Steve Dixon’s team in MXGP (which I have a huge amount of respect for), where we have always tried to challenge without the factory budgets.

We knew it would be tough this year with so many businesses and brands cutting marketing budgets and reducing costs; this was never going to be good for us. We have just had two incredible months of stats, with January and February bringing in over 1 million people to the website, which is quite bittersweet. As much as the funds are low, so is my energy and health. COVID impacted me more than I could ever envisaged. My health has deteriorated ever since I caught COVID; my immune system is not in a great place, and when I try and work to the standard I set myself, my body breaks on me, and it takes me days to recover. Ed Stratmann has been a revelation since he took the editorial reigns and has pushed MX Vice to new heights, which is incredible given the lack of resources he has had to work with and support from myself. I have been missing from the podcast show to reduce my time, as I am now self-employed and working for two companies to pay the bills.

Every journey ends, and that’s not what we want. Over the past 13 years, we have given it everything, leaving no stone unturned. We’re proud of how we have disrupted, challenged decisions, held organisations accountable, and illuminated incredible stories.

We will have an auction for signed shirts donated by riders, podcast equipment, and memorabilia to pay off the invoices of some contributors. If, however, you want to see MX Vice continue, you can donate here: https://ko-fi.com/mxvice or purchase a shirt or memorabilia. If we meet our target of £25,000, which is currently outstanding to run this year, then Ed and I will continue. However, we fully expect this won’t happen due to the large sum required.

It’s hard out there at the moment. Take care of your health and family, and never lose your passion for the most fantastic sport in the world.

Burf.

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Features

Lit Kit Gallery: MXGP of Patagonia – Argentina

The best from round 1.

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Check out some of the freshest fits, helmets and more from the MXGP of Patagonia – Argentina. Lead Image: Nestaan Husqvarna – Full Spectrum.

Photo credits: Red Bull KTM – Ray Archer / Nestaan Husqvarna – Full Spectrum / Yamaha MXGP – Full Spectrum + Eva Szabadfi / JM Honda / Kawasaki MXGP / Fantic MXGP / Yamaha MX2 – Full Spectrum / HRC MXGP / GasGas – Juan Pablo Acevedo


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